Forecast

Last friday morning KH called me to see him... i just dn't like to be call by any of the top management ..

KH want me to forcast Malaysia's export for 2008...what ??? i said i can't ..i dnt know how to do... but still must to coz .... who else to be told to do...

I just said i try ... coz i never done it before.. he want it before lunch...the time too short ... i need time to study on how to do it... he said just do simple one ... using product sector ...u forecast for four month an then the whole year 2008... to include the falling of commodities prices for crude petrol and palm oil.. also e&e ...

it really a headache before lunch friday ...how u want to do it....but then i remember my previous director Dr Mike ... had done a simple forecast ...i help him to provide the stats ... so

what a bless ..after searching ..i found the files sent by Dr Mike to me ...as i had help him and for my future reference .... i am glad that i had a director like him... it was in the year 2000 when YB Minister asked him to forcast the export figures for 2000 .... this we call 3 thing u bring with u when u die ... doa anak yg soleh... harta yg disedekahkan and ilmu yang digunakan even u are not there....

so even Dr Mike already on "pencen' but the knowleadge he taught me ... still can be use now 2008..

using his excel file i expand the stat to the latest we forecast from the year 1993 monthly data ... result look ok 9.7% ..near to epu 9.3% but all this not considering other factors... i tried many method untill lunch time ...

that day we also having jamuan raya at 2pm BPS ...i can't go coz to complete the forcast ..
2.45 pm KH called to see the output... well i show him the 9.7% ...but he not satisfied coz not considering other factors he mentioned ... i had to redo and to see him on tuesday...

my cuti deepavali ....not fun at all coz of how i want to forecast...but still went to JB on saturday and come back to KL on Sunday midnight ...so tired my sister had bought a new house ...coner lot so big space ....and the kenduri ....just going smoothly ....she must have to spent a lot ..

Monday...got bad flu coz so tired and cannot open my laptop ...then after maghrib... i force myself to look at the forecast...need to give something new to KH ... how...how...

Then i do regression 'multiple regression " using SPSS ...i developed a model ....Y=a+bX1+bX2+bX3.. meaning export value will be influenc by time..price of crude petrol, palm oil..e&e ..data monthly from 2005 til aug 2008...

The output seems ok .... but still not confident coz this is too technical...anyway..must bring something to him...

Today 9am KH called to see the result again... waaaa....tension .... i show him the regresiion output ....he said i think .... dn't need a model ... but just an estimation...

Use the x by sector ..take the % for EE..CP ..PO as decline for 4 month and other stagnant....do it again and send to me in one hour ...

O dear one hour .... forget the model then he need just in excel... i do as he asked and see him at 2 pm.... he said this one is ok ...but i want others to be consider ..too...pls go through again...

i redo and try to estimate using my own judgment which product will up and down..for the next four month... then 5.30 pm....KH called want to see the result .... now he is satisfied ...not the only three he mentioned but i had put more ....

Don't know what he want to do with it but he put it in his write up...my estimation is aroud 10.8-10.9% so i told him to put growth for 2008 bet 10-11%.

Trully, the way it was done was not correct the basis is not strong ... i said to him many times ... we can't forcast but he said it just for my usage .... I just dn't understand ....but now i must try to develope a forcast model that ...i know there will be another person will asked me why u put it drop by 6% ....and etc....

There will be a meeting tomorrow chair by KE.... KH want me to attend .... if he talk about the estimate figure... i will be in trouble and should be prepare for more challenges work ....i think i want to escape but how...hmmmm...lets see 2morrow....