My monthly forecast

So sad ...my monthly forecast missed target... however wish the annual will near to the actual...
coz this is the end of Q3 ...so many be the trend still upward... but lets see the 4 Q may be not ..so coz the declining of world economic ...

U are beautiful..

My friend forward me a powerpoint with this song....
must learn how to use ppt but i think the lyric of the song.. got words which was block by IT of my orgz ... hmmmm ...i just like the music

You'r beautiful
(james blunt)

My life is brilliant.
My love is pure.
I saw an angel.
Of that I'm sure.
She smiled at me on the subway.
She was with another man.
But I won't lose no sleep on that,
'Cause I've got a plan.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful, it's true.
I saw you face in a crowded place,
And I don't know what to do,'
Cause I'll never be with you.
Yeah, she caught my eye,As we walked on by.
She could see from my face that I was,Fucking high,
And I don't think that I'll see her again,
But we shared a moment that will last till the end.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful, it's true.
I saw you face in a crowded place,
And I don't know what to do,
'Cause I'll never be with you.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful.
You're beautiful, it's true.
There must be an angel with a smile on her face,
When she thought up that I should be with you.
But it's time to face the truth,
I will never be with you.

Forecast

Last friday morning KH called me to see him... i just dn't like to be call by any of the top management ..

KH want me to forcast Malaysia's export for 2008...what ??? i said i can't ..i dnt know how to do... but still must to coz .... who else to be told to do...

I just said i try ... coz i never done it before.. he want it before lunch...the time too short ... i need time to study on how to do it... he said just do simple one ... using product sector ...u forecast for four month an then the whole year 2008... to include the falling of commodities prices for crude petrol and palm oil.. also e&e ...

it really a headache before lunch friday ...how u want to do it....but then i remember my previous director Dr Mike ... had done a simple forecast ...i help him to provide the stats ... so

what a bless ..after searching ..i found the files sent by Dr Mike to me ...as i had help him and for my future reference .... i am glad that i had a director like him... it was in the year 2000 when YB Minister asked him to forcast the export figures for 2000 .... this we call 3 thing u bring with u when u die ... doa anak yg soleh... harta yg disedekahkan and ilmu yang digunakan even u are not there....

so even Dr Mike already on "pencen' but the knowleadge he taught me ... still can be use now 2008..

using his excel file i expand the stat to the latest we forecast from the year 1993 monthly data ... result look ok 9.7% ..near to epu 9.3% but all this not considering other factors... i tried many method untill lunch time ...

that day we also having jamuan raya at 2pm BPS ...i can't go coz to complete the forcast ..
2.45 pm KH called to see the output... well i show him the 9.7% ...but he not satisfied coz not considering other factors he mentioned ... i had to redo and to see him on tuesday...

my cuti deepavali ....not fun at all coz of how i want to forecast...but still went to JB on saturday and come back to KL on Sunday midnight ...so tired my sister had bought a new house ...coner lot so big space ....and the kenduri ....just going smoothly ....she must have to spent a lot ..

Monday...got bad flu coz so tired and cannot open my laptop ...then after maghrib... i force myself to look at the forecast...need to give something new to KH ... how...how...

Then i do regression 'multiple regression " using SPSS ...i developed a model ....Y=a+bX1+bX2+bX3.. meaning export value will be influenc by time..price of crude petrol, palm oil..e&e ..data monthly from 2005 til aug 2008...

The output seems ok .... but still not confident coz this is too technical...anyway..must bring something to him...

Today 9am KH called to see the result again... waaaa....tension .... i show him the regresiion output ....he said i think .... dn't need a model ... but just an estimation...

Use the x by sector ..take the % for EE..CP ..PO as decline for 4 month and other stagnant....do it again and send to me in one hour ...

O dear one hour .... forget the model then he need just in excel... i do as he asked and see him at 2 pm.... he said this one is ok ...but i want others to be consider ..too...pls go through again...

i redo and try to estimate using my own judgment which product will up and down..for the next four month... then 5.30 pm....KH called want to see the result .... now he is satisfied ...not the only three he mentioned but i had put more ....

Don't know what he want to do with it but he put it in his write up...my estimation is aroud 10.8-10.9% so i told him to put growth for 2008 bet 10-11%.

Trully, the way it was done was not correct the basis is not strong ... i said to him many times ... we can't forcast but he said it just for my usage .... I just dn't understand ....but now i must try to develope a forcast model that ...i know there will be another person will asked me why u put it drop by 6% ....and etc....

There will be a meeting tomorrow chair by KE.... KH want me to attend .... if he talk about the estimate figure... i will be in trouble and should be prepare for more challenges work ....i think i want to escape but how...hmmmm...lets see 2morrow....

End my Puasa 6

Today is the last day of my puasa 6... hppy ...so much challenges but at last..

What i do today.... reach ofic at 730am... amend the letter to DOS as DN requested to include all agreed by both side in the letter and it should not be too long...muhibbah again...

next time easier just to see the person who want to sign the letter rather taken a week amend here and there then still...had to rewrite...

I completed rewrite the letter and went to see him at 9.00 but had til wait until 9.20 ..to get see him... he amend it straight away... i think to be somebody on the top u must think fast and can write well..

than at last complete the muhibbah things ..as the letter send to DOS...

then continue looking the factor analysis again... now i understand that when i study KP there is alot more that i didn learn...

last night sleep at 12pm.... its good do smothing u likes.... i think need to learn forecating .....

My last contribution

Last friday my MBA friend asked me to help her in doing her assignment... Researh method.. factor analysis..

She don't know how to use spss... and of course to intprete the data...

So today i send her the input but... as expected she need me to answer all the questions as well reasons ... Dr not taught the topic during the class only give a demo that so difficult to understand...

At first i dnt want to do for her... but since this is my favourite subject and when i took this paper in the fourth sem ... i do the analysis for my group members....meaning if i help her it will be the same situation that i do alone for my group...so i decide to help her ....even i dnt really know the topic so need to study back....

lets see the result...

My MBA Friend

Yesterday i got very bad flu for d whole day ...and i m fasting too...Wednesday... dn't know why its so challenging to fast that day... my nose seem want to take off from my face ..my eyes so gatal... and what a headache... i want to break my fast but...feel teribble ...anyway i past the challenge and got one full day....pay . After maghrib still not ok take a pil then sleep...

I called my MBA friend just to motive her..exam is coming and as usual ..lecturer always make us panic with the list of topic to read for exam ...and presentation....

she said dn't know how to cope presentation and exam ten chap to read ... the sem will end early Nov 08 and will continue the new sem in also Nov08 ....

Another friend which extand one sem coz of given birth ...her third child also have to repeat the paper since now her baby got health problem so cannot leave d baby to take the examination ... Some time i pity her coz she work really hard but at the end must extend i think if her baby still not well she might extend one more sem ....

So so...now i m still looking at my result... hmmm what can i do with it.... still searching for the answer....

New Carpet for my room

My sis bought a carpet ...RM200 to me its expensive unfortunetly its not match with her sofa...as usual asked me to buy...

since my house empty and pity her i bought from her with discount...but pay when got bonus in Dec ...

She asked me to put it at ruang tamu but.... i put it in my room...so tonight my room got new carpet but...i think d room look ugly with it ...coz its too big...anyway why should i put RM200 kat ruang tamu ... i should use for myself..

Eventhough it too big but ....it better to have carpet that is so soft and thick ...for alas time solat so more comfortable rather the older one which so nipis ....

Song

Sometimes i loves listen to music... sometimes i don't ...
Normally i will email song to friends ... not that good kan... but just to listen ..

Now li ike this song ...aku wanita by Siti Nurhaliza.. but one of my friend said don't like siti song...so i sent Bryan Adam ... Heaven.. then its ok

I think we malaysian loves to listen to english song rather bahasa

here is the Lyrics Heaven Bryan Adams

Oh - thinkin' about all our younger years
There was only you and me
We were young and wild and free
Now nothin' can take you away from me
We bin down that road before
But that's over now
You keep me comin' back for more
Baby you're all that I want
When you're lyin' here in my arms
I'm findin' it hard to believe
We're in heaven
And love is all that I need
And I found it there in your heart
It isn't too hard to see
We're in heaven
Oh - once in your life you find someone
Who will turn your world around
Bring you up when you're feelin' down
Ya - nothin' could change what you mean to me
Oh there's lots that I could say
But just hold me now
Cause our love will light the way
N' baby you're all that I want
When you're lyin' here in my arms
I'm findin' it hard to believe
We're in heavenAnd love is all that I need
And I found it there in your heart
It isn't too hard to see
We're in heaven
I've bin waitin' for so long
For something to arrive
For love to come along
Now our dreams are comin' true
Through the good times and the bad
Ya - I'll be standin' there by you

PR work

Don't know why this week had to do PR work...stats and PR ...the gap is too big

But at least learnt something...DOS came to visit our CEO then i have to arranged for the event... never done before


i cant sleep last night waiting for this morning event.. asked Kak Puspa alot but still cannot manage well.... dn't know nowday how our PR work... passing work to others weired..

The weaknest of the this morning event
1. No gift for the visitor from CEO just goodies bag for everyone (everyone said it s drop our water face hehe... but to me it is an experince..even i already asked the PR why only goodies bag where is the gitft they said admn. only gave that... dnt know what they know'

2. The Powerpoint cannot be click... for detail ...the under line sentence should be can clik but it failed...i test it many times at my pc it work.. but when ceo cliks during the event it cannot pop out... (nxt time test it in the actual place and note book used during the event)..

3. The visitor came too earlie 915 all the top management was not there ...habit i guess late not puntual

...the food also must be checked ... ushering...etc

must do a check list...do agenda put in folder....

i just wondering why the young people now days take easy for everythings.. when i was a junior i had to do all the minutes and alway do evething coz my bos told me so... but today my bos seem quiet and let the junior .. be what they want... for the same work two of them do ... was done by me alone .... previously

not to say its unfair but just wondering ...what if they came earlier than me .... how will they act ..

Raya Aidil Fitri 2008

Raya ..just a norm days to me ever since my mom passed away 10 years ago..
But i like the last day of Ramadhan dn't know why ...cn't tell... but i feel happy... may be coz we masak2 at the last day and its remind me of how busy my late mom prepare the food to send to our relative ... bef this i always asked why must we sent food to them... but know we continue my mom did by...sending food to other relative at the last day of Ramadhan..

This year we cooked alot and received alot... we only cooke ketupat and lepat but we also have nasi impit and lemang (send by others)... a lot of food was wasted ...especially rendang ... first day raya my sis and bro bring them...but can't eat anymore... the next day basi..

I start working on the third day of raya so...not going out much just visit my granny at my aunt house and the 2nd raya back to Kl...but i m came back to kg on saturday so stay longer during ramadhan than raya... we repaint the house with the same old color..after 10 year ... the old house look nice after make up...

the feeling of hari raya during the chidhood is stronger... it full of dreams and alot2 of dreams..but when we reached that ..the feeling gone...

i learnt that "We must sentiasa bersyukur dengan anugerahNYA'

if we can't feel it...let create the feeling for others...